Demand Forecasting with External Signals
Weather, holidays, epidemics, and economic factors affecting pharmacy demand
Forecast Period
2025W40
9/29/2025
Demand Increase
+32%
vs. baseline forecast
📈
Active Signals
4
affecting demand
🌡️
Confidence Score
82%
forecast accuracy
🎯
Urgent Reorders
3
products need attention
⚡
Active External Signals - 2025W40
Typhoon Season Peak
Peak typhoon season in Philippines (September-November). Increased respiratory infections and emergency medicine demand.
+35%
85% confidence
weatherSource: PAGASA Weather Bureau
Allergy Season
Peak allergy season due to flowering plants and air quality changes during dry season transition.
+40%
78% confidence
seasonalSource: Department of Health Allergy Reports
Back to School Season
School opening increases spread of communicable diseases and vitamin supplementation needs.
+20%
88% confidence
school calendarSource: Department of Education Calendar
Dengue Season Alert
Increased dengue cases during rainy season. Higher demand for fever management and prevention.
+60%
70% confidence
epidemicSource: DOH Epidemiology Bureau
Products with Highest Forecast Impact
Biogesic
Paracetamol
Base Demand:180
Adjusted:270 (+50%)
Current Stock:420
Recommend:600
Zyrtec
Cetirizine
Base Demand:75
Adjusted:135 (+80%)
Current Stock:95
Recommend:300
Amoxil
Amoxicillin
Base Demand:120
Adjusted:168 (+40%)
Current Stock:180
Recommend:400
Conzace
Vitamin C
Base Demand:100
Adjusted:145 (+45%)
Current Stock:300
Recommend:350
Centrum
Multivitamins
Base Demand:90
Adjusted:135 (+50%)
Current Stock:45
Recommend:280
Imodium
Loperamide
Base Demand:40
Adjusted:30 (-25%)
Current Stock:240
Recommend:60